Week ahead, 2 – 6 November 2026: midterms, the Bank of England and an October payroll

29,000. That is the September nonfarm payroll, and it is the figure the October report has to follow on Friday 6 November at 13:30 UTC, against a consensus of 55,000 and an unemployment rate seen unchanged at 4.2%. This week ahead forex calendar for 2 to 6 November 2026 runs through the US midterm elections on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia the same morning, the euro area flash inflation on Wednesday and the Bank of England with a Monetary Policy Report on Thursday.

A week ahead is a short list of scheduled releases, the previous print for each, and the consensus where a poll exists. It tells you when volatility is scheduled, not where price will go. The previous week ahead carried five central bank decisions: four held and the Bank of Canada hiked to 2.50%. The United States moved to standard time on 1 November, so 08:30 in New York is now 13:30 UTC, 14:30 in Paris, one hour later on a Paris screen than last week.

What is on the week ahead forex calendar for 2 to 6 November 2026?

All times are UTC, with Paris in brackets. Previous values come from the official releases in the sources; consensus figures are the Trading Economics and Newsquawk polls available on 1 November, otherwise marked to be confirmed.

Mon 2 Nov

• 15:00 (16:00)USISM manufacturing PMI, Octoberprevious 54.5, consensus 54.7; S&P Global flash 56.0
• All weekCNNPC Standing Committee session, 2 to 6 Novemberfiscal headlines possible, no scheduled time
• DayUSTreasury borrowing estimate for Q4preliminary 628 billion dollars; feeds Wednesday's refunding

Tue 3 Nov

• All dayJPCulture Day, Tokyo closedthinner JPY liquidity through the Asian session
• 03:30 (04:30)AURBA decision and Statement on Monetary Policycash rate 4.60% after a unanimous 25 bp hike on 29 September; market pricing about 79% for 4.85% per Newsquawk
• 07:30 (08:30)CHCPI, Octoberconsensus to be confirmed; SNB sees Q4 average at 1.2% y/y
• All dayUSMidterm elections435 House seats, 35 Senate seats, 36 governorships; counting runs into the Asian session on Wednesday
• 15:00 (16:00)USJOLTS job openings, Septemberprevious 7.08 million, consensus 7.06 million
• 15:00 (16:00)USFactory orders, Septemberprevious +1.1% m/m, consensus +1.3%

Wed 4 Nov

• 08:30 (09:30)SERiksbank decisionpolicy rate 1.75%; 25 bp hike to 2.00% expected per Newsquawk; time to be confirmed
• 10:00 (11:00)EZFlash HICP, Octoberprevious 3.8% y/y, core 2.5%, energy 18.9%; Trading Economics consensus 3.9%
• 13:15 (14:15)USADP employment, Octoberprevious 65,000, consensus 80,000
• 13:30 (14:30)USQuarterly refunding announcement; trade balance, Septembercoupon sizes guidance; trade deficit previous 107.6 billion dollars, consensus 108.8 billion
• 15:00 (16:00)USISM services PMI, Octoberprevious 54.9, consensus 54.5 to 54.7
• 23:50 (00:50 Thu)JPBoJ minutes of the September meetingthe meeting that raised the policy rate to 1.25% by 7-2; time to be confirmed

Thu 5 Nov

• 07:00 (08:00)DEFactory orders, Septemberconsensus to be confirmed
• 09:00 (10:00)NONorges Bank decisionpolicy rate 4.50% after a 25 bp hike in September; hold expected per Newsquawk; no report at this meeting
• 12:00 (13:00)UKBank of England decision, Monetary Policy ReportBank Rate 3.75%, held 6-3 on 16 September with three votes for 4.00%; September CPI 3.5%; 25 bp hike expected per Newsquawk; press conference 12:30 UTC
• 13:30 (14:30)USInitial jobless claims; Q3 productivity, preliminaryclaims previous 194,000, consensus 195,000; productivity previous 3.1% annualised, consensus 2.7%
• DayCAFederal Budgettime to be confirmed; supply headline for CAD rates
• DayEZECB President Lagarde speakstime to be confirmed

Fri 6 Nov

• 07:00 (08:00)DEIndustrial production, Septemberconsensus to be confirmed
• 10:00 (11:00)EZRetail sales, Septemberprevious +0.1% m/m
• 13:30 (14:30)USNonfarm payrolls, Octoberprevious +29,000, consensus +55,000; unemployment previous 4.2%, consensus 4.2%; average hourly earnings previous +0.1% m/m and 3.0% y/y, consensus +0.3% and 2.9%
• 13:30 (14:30)CALabour force survey, Octoberprevious -68,000, consensus +14,000; unemployment 6.5%; first jobs report after the 28 October hike
• 15:00 (16:00)USUniversity of Michigan sentiment, November preliminaryprevious 48.2, consensus 47.0

29,000 → 55,000

US nonfarm payrolls

September print and October consensus; 6 November, 13:30 UTC

3.75%

Bank Rate

held 6-3 on 16 September; 25 bp hike expected on 5 November, 12:00 UTC

4.60%

RBA cash rate

after a unanimous hike on 29 September; about 79% priced for 4.85% on 3 November

What do the US midterm elections on 3 November 2026 put on the calendar?

Tuesday is a date, not a time. Voters elect all 435 members of the House, 35 senators and 36 governors. Polls close across the US evening, so the count runs through the Asian session on Wednesday 4 November, when Tokyo reopens after Culture Day. Wednesday's scheduled data then arrive in one window: ADP at 13:15 UTC, the Treasury refunding announcement at 13:30 UTC and the ISM services PMI at 15:00 UTC. None of this tells you which way the dollar goes.

Will the Bank of England raise Bank Rate on 5 November 2026?

The decision is published at 12:00 UTC, 13:00 in Paris, with the Monetary Policy Report and a press conference at 12:30 UTC. On 16 September the Committee held Bank Rate at 3.75% by six votes to three; Megan Greene, Catherine Mann and Huw Pill voted for 4.00%. UK CPI then rose to 3.5% in September from 3.1%, with services at 3.7% and core at 2.8%. The Bank's September projection had CPI around 3.75% in the fourth quarter. Newsquawk expects a 25 basis point hike and writes that the vote split and the guidance after it are what to read.

Two Nordic decisions frame it. Norges Bank publishes at 09:00 UTC on Thursday at 4.50% after a hike in September; a hold is expected. The Riksbank publishes on Wednesday at 1.75%; Newsquawk expects 2.00%.

What does the RBA decide on 3 November 2026?

The RBA publishes at 03:30 UTC, 04:30 in Paris, with its quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy. The cash rate is 4.60% after a unanimous 25 basis point hike on 29 September, the fourth of the year; the minutes say the Board would raise again if required. Since then the September monthly CPI printed 4.3% on the year and the Q3 trimmed mean 1.0% on the quarter, against the Bank's August forecast of 0.8%. Newsquawk puts market pricing at about 79% for 4.85%. Tokyo is closed for Culture Day, so the yen crosses trade on thinner books around the statement.

What does the October 2026 nonfarm payrolls report follow?

A weak one. The September report showed 29,000 jobs, an unemployment rate of 4.2% and hourly earnings up 0.1% on the month and 3.0% on the year. July was revised to -10,000 and August to 133,000, a combined 60,000 lower than first reported. The consensus for October is 55,000, 4.2% and 0.3% on earnings. Canada reports the same minute, after -68,000 in September, one week after the Bank of Canada raised its policy rate to 2.50%.

Source: BLS Employment Situation, September 2026; Newsquawk

Last week's prints sit behind it. The Fed held at 3.75 to 4.00% by 10 votes to 2, with Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack voting for a hike; Q3 GDP came in at 3.4% annualised; the September PCE price index rose 3.6% on the year, core 3.1%. The ECB held at 2.50% and the Bank of Japan at 1.25% while raising its fiscal 2027 core inflation forecast to 2.6%. Europe's number this week is Wednesday's flash HICP at 10:00 UTC: September was 3.8%, with energy at 18.9% and core at 2.5%, and the Trading Economics consensus for October is 3.9%.

What does it mean for your sessions?

Three windows carry most of the scheduled risk. Tuesday 03:30 UTC is the RBA on a Japanese holiday, when the Asian book is thin. Thursday 12:00 to 12:30 UTC is the BoE decision and press conference, inside the London session and before New York opens. Friday 13:30 UTC is payrolls and the Canadian survey in the same minute, one hour later on a Paris clock than in October.

The unscheduled risk is Tuesday night into Wednesday. Election counts do not keep a release time, and a stop resting through the Asian session can be filled away from its level on a headline. None of this says which way anything goes. It says when the spread moves.

What your journal would show

On illustrative demo data, a trader who ran 36 trades in the 26 to 30 October week had an expectancy of 0.09R. The three trades opened in the ten minutes after Thursday's 12:30 UTC GDP and PCE release averaged -0.38R; the nine trades opened between 08:00 and 11:00 UTC averaged 0.27R. Read in R-multiples rather than in currency, the week was one release window, not a run of bad trades, and the count is a number to check against your own overtrading baseline.

For this week the same view answers one question: how did your trades behave in the hour after the payroll releases of 2 October and 4 September. If your best trading hours have never included 13:30 UTC, you can see where Friday afternoon belongs. Socius Trades reads your cTrader or MetaTrader history, computes the split by hour, session and instrument, and never places a trade. We look. We never touch.

Trading involves risk of loss. Socius Trades is an analytics tool, not investment advice.