Socius News162,000 jobs. That is the August payroll number the September report has to follow on Friday 2 October at 12:30 UTC. This week ahead forex calendar is the first full data week after the three September rate increases, and it stacks the releases the Federal Reserve and the ECB will read next: US PCE inflation on Wednesday 30 September, the ISM manufacturing survey on Thursday 1 October, then the euro area flash HICP and the US Employment Situation on Friday. The Reserve Bank of Australia decides on Tuesday, and mainland Chinese markets close from Thursday for a week.
A week ahead is a short list of scheduled releases, the previous print for each, and the consensus where a poll exists. It tells you when volatility is scheduled, not where price will go. One thing is not on this list: a US shutdown. The continuing resolution signed on 2 September funds federal agencies through 11 December 2026. The previous week ahead covered the flash PMIs, the SNB and a three-day Tokyo holiday.
What is on the week ahead forex calendar for 28 September to 2 October 2026?
All times are UTC, with Paris in brackets. US releases at 08:30 Eastern are 12:30 UTC. Where no poll was available on 27 September, the consensus is marked to be confirmed.
Week of 28 September 2026
Times in UTC (Paris in brackets)
Mon 28 Sep
- All dayUSNo major US release scheduledFed calendar shows one virtual talk only
- 12:15 (14:15)USFed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman, bank supervisionMilitary Banking Summit, virtual; topic is regulation, not rates
Tue 29 Sep
- 04:30 (06:30)AURBA monetary policy decisioncash rate 4.35%, held on 11 August by a unanimous vote; Governor's media conference at 05:30 UTC; consensus to be confirmed
- 07:00 (09:00)ESFlash CPI, Septemberfirst euro area September inflation print; previous and consensus to be confirmed
- 14:00 (16:00)USJOLTS job openings, Augustprevious 7.3 million, openings rate 4.4%; consensus to be confirmed
- 16:40 (18:40)USFed Governor Barr, economic outlookDetroit; first Board speech on the outlook since the 16 September increase
Wed 30 Sep
- 01:30 (03:30)CNNBS manufacturing PMI, Septemberprevious 49.8, up from 49.2 in July; last print before the National Day closure
- 06:45 (08:45)FRFlash CPI, Septemberprevious and consensus to be confirmed
- 12:00 (14:00)DEFlash CPI, Septemberprevious 2.9% y/y, core 2.4%, energy +10.5%; release day per Destatis calendar to be confirmed
- 12:30 (14:30)USGDP, Q2 third estimatesecond estimate 1.5% annualised, unchanged from advance; Q1 was 2.1%
- 12:30 (14:30)USPersonal income and outlays, August (PCE)July PCE price index 0.2% m/m, 3.7% y/y; core 0.2% m/m, 3.3% y/y; consensus to be confirmed
- 19:25 (21:25)USFed Governor Cook, rural economyAsheville, North Carolina
- 23:50 (01:50 Thu)JPTankan survey, Q308:50 Tokyo on 1 October; previous and consensus to be confirmed
Thu 1 Oct
- All dayCNShanghai and Shenzhen exchanges closed, National Dayclosed 1 to 7 October, trading resumes 8 October; thin Asia liquidity in yuan-sensitive pairs
- 06:30 (08:30)CHCPI, Septemberprevious 0.8% y/y, one week after the SNB assessment; consensus to be confirmed
- 09:00 (11:00)EZUnemployment rate, Augustprevious 6.4%, stable on June
- 12:30 (14:30)USInitial jobless claimsprevious and consensus to be confirmed
- 14:00 (16:00)USISM manufacturing PMI, Septemberprevious 54.6, down from 55.6; prices index 71.1, employment 51.2; consensus to be confirmed
Fri 2 Oct
- 09:00 (11:00)EZFlash HICP, Septemberprevious 3.2% y/y, up from 2.9%; core 2.4%; consensus to be confirmed
- 12:30 (14:30)USEmployment Situation, September (nonfarm payrolls)previous +162,000, unemployment 4.1%, average hourly earnings +0.3% m/m and +3.1% y/y; June and July revised up by a combined 55,000; consensus to be confirmed
Which three numbers matter most?
+162,000
US nonfarm payrolls, August
unemployment 4.1%, average hourly earnings +3.1% y/y; September print due Friday 12:30 UTC
3.7%
US PCE price index, July y/y
core 3.3%; the Fed's preferred gauge, August print due Wednesday 12:30 UTC
3.2%
Euro area HICP, August y/y
up from 2.9% in July, core 2.4%; September flash due Friday 09:00 UTC
What does the nonfarm payrolls September 2026 report follow?
The August report, published on 4 September, showed payrolls up 162,000 and the unemployment rate at 4.1%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% on the month and 3.1% on the year. The two prior months were revised up: June from 20,000 to 31,000 and July from a loss of 23,000 to a gain of 21,000, a combined 55,000.
That revision pattern is the detail to keep in view on Friday. A headline near consensus can still move the dollar if June and July are revised again. Tuesday's JOLTS report for August, with openings at 7.3 million in July, and Thursday's jobless claims arrive before it.
What do Wednesday's PCE and Friday's flash HICP tell the central banks?
The Fed raised its target range to 3.75% to 4.00% on 16 September and said inflation remains elevated. Its preferred gauge, the PCE price index, rose 3.7% in the year to July, with the core index at 3.3%. The August print lands on Wednesday at 12:30 UTC, together with the third estimate of second-quarter GDP; the second estimate was 1.5% annualised, after 2.1% in the first quarter.
The ECB raised all three rates by 25 basis points on 10 September, taking the deposit facility rate to 2.50%, and wrote that inflation is set to remain well above target for an extended period. August HICP was 3.2%, up from 2.9% in July, with services adding 1.43 points and energy 1.29 points. The September flash arrives on Friday at 09:00 UTC, three and a half hours before US payrolls. Spain, France and Germany publish their national flashes first; Germany printed 2.9% in August with energy up 10.5% on the year.
Why does the RBA decide on Tuesday, and why is Shanghai closed?
The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on 28 and 29 September and announces at 14:30 Sydney, 04:30 UTC. The cash rate target is 4.35%. On 11 August the Board held it there by a unanimous vote and said it would raise further if upside risks to inflation materialise. AUD/USD and AUD/JPY are the pairs directly exposed, before London opens.
Mainland Chinese exchanges are closed from Thursday 1 October to Wednesday 7 October for National Day and resume on 8 October. The last Chinese print before the closure is the NBS manufacturing PMI on Wednesday at 01:30 UTC, 49.8 in August, up from 49.2.
What it means for your sessions
Three things change this week. First, a stacked Wednesday: German flash CPI at 12:00 UTC, then US GDP and PCE together at 12:30 UTC, within thirty minutes in the London afternoon. Second, thin Asia from Thursday: with Shanghai and Shenzhen shut, the Asian session loses a source of flow for the yuan and the Australian dollar. Third, a double Friday: the euro area flash HICP at 09:00 UTC and US payrolls at 12:30 UTC, two prints that can widen EUR/USD spreads in the same session.
None of this tells you where EUR/USD or AUD/USD will trade. It tells you when your broker's spread will widen and when a fill several pips from the quoted price is normal. Your best trading hours are not a fixed property of the clock; they shift when a release moves the volatility. Your trading expectancy by hour and by event, computed from your own closed trades, tells you which sessions are actually yours.
What your journal would show
Illustrative demo data. A trader takes 96 trades over the last eight payroll weeks. On the eight payroll Fridays, 23 trades average -0.19R; 14 of the 23 were opened between 12:00 and 13:00 UTC, and 9 of those 14 closed at the stop. On the other days, 73 trades average 0.15R. On the three PCE Wednesdays, 11 EUR/USD trades opened at the same hour averaged -0.31R against 0.11R on the other Wednesdays.
That is not a rule about payrolls or PCE. It is a pattern in one account. A read-only journal that imports your closed trades from cTrader or MetaTrader and stamps each one with the time and the R-multiple makes the pattern visible without you tagging anything. Socius Trades reads your executed trades and shows results by hour, by day and by instrument; it never places or modifies a trade. Plans start with a free tier, and the Essential plan has a 14-day trial, listed on the pricing page. The same view would show whether a Friday loss at 12:30 UTC was followed by a larger size at 13:00, the revenge trading signature.
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