Week ahead, 21 – 25 September 2026: flash PMIs, the SNB and a three-day Tokyo holiday

Three central banks raised rates in the last two weeks. This week ahead forex calendar is the first one after the moves. The Federal Reserve lifted its target range to 3.75% to 4.00% on 16 September, the Bank of Japan went to 1.25% on 18 September, and the ECB moved on 10 September. The calendar now turns to the data those banks will read next: flash PMIs on Wednesday 23 September, the Swiss National Bank on Thursday 24 September at 07:30 UTC, and US durable goods on Friday.

A week ahead is a short list of scheduled releases, the previous print for each, and the consensus where a poll exists. It tells you when volatility is scheduled, not where price will go. Tokyo markets are also closed on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, the first three Asian sessions after the BoJ decision. The previous week ahead covered the three decisions that set this up.

What is on the week ahead forex calendar for 21 to 25 September 2026?

All times are UTC, with Paris in brackets. US releases at 08:30 Eastern are 12:30 UTC. The SNB publishes at 09:30 Zurich, which is 07:30 UTC. Where no poll was available on 20 September, the consensus is marked to be confirmed.

Mon 21 Sep

• All dayJPTokyo Stock Exchange closed, Respect for the Aged Dayfirst of three consecutive Japanese holidays; thin yen liquidity in Asia
• All dayUSNo major US release scheduledFed statistical releases only

Tue 22 Sep

• All dayJPTokyo Stock Exchange closed, bridge holidayholiday under Rule 3, Paragraph 3 of the Act on National Holidays
• 14:20 (16:20)USFed Vice Chair Jefferson, Treasury market functioningfirst Board speech after the 16 September increase; topic is market plumbing, not rates

Wed 23 Sep

• All dayJPTokyo Stock Exchange closed, Autumnal Equinox Daythird and last holiday; Japan flash PMI moves to Thursday
• 07:15 (09:15)FRFlash PMI, Septemberprevious and consensus to be confirmed
• 07:30 (09:30)DEFlash PMI, Septemberprevious and consensus to be confirmed
• 08:00 (10:00)EZFlash PMI, Septemberprevious: composite 52.1, manufacturing 52.8, services 51.7; consensus to be confirmed
• 08:30 (10:30)UKFlash PMI, Septemberprevious and consensus to be confirmed
• 13:45 (15:45)USFlash PMI, Septemberprevious: composite 56.0, manufacturing 53.2, services 56.8; consensus to be confirmed
• 14:05 (16:05)USFed Governor Barr, housingcommunity development summit, Chicago Fed

Thu 24 Sep

• 00:30 (02:30)JPFlash PMI, Septemberfirst Tokyo session of the week; previous to be confirmed
• 07:30 (09:30)CHSNB monetary policy assessmentpolicy rate 0% since June 2025; June forecast: inflation 0.6% in 2026; August CPI 0.8% y/y; consensus to be confirmed
• 08:30 (10:30)DEifo Business Climate, Septemberprevious 88.8, up from 86.7; consensus to be confirmed
• 12:30 (14:30)USInitial jobless claimsprevious and consensus to be confirmed
• 14:00 (16:00)USNew home sales, Augustprevious and consensus to be confirmed

Fri 25 Sep

• 12:30 (14:30)USDurable goods orders, advance, Augustprevious and consensus to be confirmed; GDP third estimate and August PCE are on 30 September, not this week

Which three numbers matter most?

3.75-4.00%

Fed funds target range

raised 25 bp on 16 September, 12-0 vote; median projection 4.1% for end-2026

0%

SNB policy rate

unchanged since June 2025; August CPI 0.8% y/y against a 0.6% forecast for 2026

56.0

US composite PMI, August

up from 54.5; services 56.8, manufacturing 53.2

What does the SNB decision on 24 September 2026 turn on?

The SNB policy rate is 0%. It has not moved since June 2025. At the June 2026 assessment the Bank kept it there and published a conditional inflation forecast of 0.6% for 2026, 0.6% for 2027 and 0.7% for 2028. Inflation had risen from 0.1% in February to 0.6% in May. The statement also said the SNB has "an increased willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market" against a rapid appreciation of the franc.

Since then the August CPI rose 0.4% on the month and 0.8% on the year, above the 2026 forecast. No poll was available when this calendar was written, so the consensus is to be confirmed. The decision lands at 07:30 UTC, thirty minutes after the London cash open. USD/CHF and EUR/CHF are the pairs directly exposed.

What do the flash PMIs on 23 September 2026 show?

The September flash PMIs are the first survey data collected entirely after the Fed and BoJ decisions. The August US composite output index printed 56.0, up from 54.5, with services at 56.8 and manufacturing at 53.2. The Eurozone composite was 52.1 in August, with manufacturing at 52.8 and services at 51.7.

Japan's flash PMI moves to Thursday 00:30 UTC because Wednesday is a holiday. The ifo Business Climate for Germany follows at 08:30 UTC on Thursday, one hour after the SNB. August printed 88.8, up from 86.7.

What did the three central banks decide, and why does it matter this week?

The FOMC raised the target range by a quarter point to 3.75% to 4.00%. The vote was 12 to 0. The statement said "inflation remains elevated" and that the increase supports "a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal." The median projection puts the federal funds rate at 4.1% at the end of 2026 and 4.1% at the end of 2027, with PCE inflation at 3.7% this year.

The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% on 17 September by 6 to 3, with three members preferring 4.00%. CPI inflation was 3.1% in August, and the Committee expects around 3.75% in the fourth quarter. The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1.25% on 18 September by 7 to 2.

What it means for your sessions

Three things change this week. First, thin Asia: with Tokyo closed from Monday to Wednesday, USD/JPY and the yen crosses open the week on lower volume than usual, right after a rate increase. A stop at a normal distance sits inside the noise when the book is thin. Second, a stacked Wednesday morning: four flash PMIs land between 07:15 and 08:30 UTC, then the US print at 13:45 UTC. Third, Thursday 07:30 UTC: the SNB is the only scheduled rate decision of the week.

None of this tells you where USD/CHF, EUR/USD or USD/JPY will trade. It tells you when your broker's spread will widen and when a fill several pips from the quoted price is normal. Your best trading hours are not a fixed property of the clock; they shift when a holiday removes a session or a release moves a day. Your trading expectancy by hour and by event, computed from your own closed trades, tells you which sessions are actually yours.

What your journal would show

Illustrative demo data. A trader takes 84 trades over the last six SNB weeks. On the six decision days, 19 trades average -0.14R; 11 of the 19 were opened between 07:00 and 08:00 UTC and 8 of those 11 closed at the stop. On the other days, 65 trades average 0.17R. On Japanese holidays over the same period, USD/JPY trades between 00:00 and 06:00 UTC averaged -0.22R against 0.09R on normal Tokyo days, on a sample of 14 trades.

That is not a rule about the SNB or about Tokyo. It is a pattern in one account. A read-only journal that imports your closed trades from cTrader or MetaTrader and stamps each one with the time and the R-multiple makes the pattern visible without you tagging anything. Socius Trades reads your executed trades and shows results by hour, by day and by instrument; it never places or modifies a trade. Plans start with a free tier, and the Essential plan has a 14-day trial, listed on the pricing page. The same view would show whether a Thursday loss around the SNB was followed by a larger Friday size, the revenge trading signature.

We look. We never touch.

Trading involves risk of loss. Socius Trades is an analytics tool, not investment advice.